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GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham said in a note Wednesday he sees a "dangerous mix" set to cause "more trouble ahead" for stocks. Dani Burger reports on Bloomberg Television. - To watch the full Front Row interview with Jeremy Grantham, go here: 🤍 Like this video? Subscribe to Bloomberg on YouTube: 🤍 Follow Bloomberg for business news & analysis, up-to-the-minute market data, features, profiles and more: 🤍 Connect with us on... Twitter: 🤍 Facebook: 🤍 Instagram: 🤍
For almost a half-century, value-investing icon Jeremy Grantham has been calling market bubbles. Now, he says U.S. stocks are in a “super bubble,” only the fourth in history, and poised to collapse. In this interview, Grantham, co-founder of Boston’s GMO, goes further, explaining his bubble analysis and discussing what he sees as multiple threats to the economy and the planet, including persistent inflation and climate change. He spoke exclusively with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg’s “Front Row.” Follow Bloomberg for business news & analysis, up-to-the-minute market data, features, profiles and more: 🤍 Connect with us on... Twitter: 🤍 Facebook: 🤍 Instagram: 🤍
The US economy is in a superbubble - here is why: ► Up to 13 Free Stocks With Moomoo: 🤍 ► Up to $50 in cash coupons with Moomoo AU (by 9/7/2022): 🤍 This is a limited time offer and by using my link , you can get 3 more stocks than the regular new user reward (which is 10 free stocks only). After receiving the free stocks, maintain your average assets of $100 or more for 60 days to unlock the stocks ("Assets" includes cash and securities positions). This only applies to bonus 2. ► Get $100 Bitcoin for retirement: 🤍l/AndreiJikh ► How I went from Zero To A Million: 🤍 ► My Stock Portfolio + Stock Tracker: 🤍 ► Get 2 FREE stocks valued up to $1850 (when you deposit $100): 🤍 ► ROBINHOOD (Get 1 Stock When You Sign Up): 🤍 ► Open A Roth IRA: 🤍 ► Follow Me On Instagram: 🤍 ► How I Protect My Bitcoin: 🤍 My PO Box: Andrei Jikh 4132 S. Rainbow Blvd # 270 Las Vegas, NV 89103 DISCLAIMER: Moomoo is a professional trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. Securities are offered through Futu Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. The experiences of the influencer may not be representative of the experiences of other moomoo users. Any comments or opinions provided by the influencer are their own and not necessarily the views of Futu. Futu does not endorse any trading strategies that may be discussed or promoted here. This advertisement is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to engage in any investment or financial strategy. Investment and financial decisions should always be based on your specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. *None of this is meant to be construed as investment advice, it's for entertainment purposes only. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
✉️ OUR NEWSLETTER: 🤍 📚 OUR COURSE/MEMBERSHIP: 🤍 We're in an economic superbubble, and it could end the financial stability of the West. Or at least that's what world-famous crash predictors Jeremy Grantham and Michael Burry believe in any case. A superbubble has only happened three times in the last century, and it meant catastrophe for world markets on each occasion. The worst of all was the stock market crash of 1929, an event that led to The Great Depression; the worst economic slowdown in the history of the industrialised world. Unfortunately, the one we're in right now could be worse. Grantham says our superbubble could be devastating because it involves more asset classes than ever before. And Michael Burry (of The Big Short fame) has been saying for over a year that we're now on the verge of an econoic collapse, one he believes will hit us this year. Please let me know your thoughts below. 0:00 - We're in a superbubble 0:47 - Predicting a financial collapse 2:26 - Why do they believe a crash is coming? 4:30 - What this crash could look like 6:47 - Steps to prepare for a crash 7:59 - Some final thoughts ► IMPORTANT LINKS: Enter your email below for free weekly lessons and insights into becoming financially free, investing, global tax and corporate structures, passports, residencies, and more. 🤍 ► SOCIAL MEDIA: • Abundantia Instagram: 🤍abundantia.co 🤍 • Sorelle's Instagram: 🤍sorelleamore 🤍 • Leon's Instagram: 🤍leonhill 🤍 • Abundantia Twitter: 🤍 • Abundantia Facebook: 🤍 Sorelle and Leon. Founders, Abundantia Liability Disclaimer: 🤍 *We may earn a commission if you buy any products or services via the links in this video's description. This video is not investment, financial, or legal advice. It may be incorrect, outdated, inaccurate, or reflect personal opinions. This video is for entertainment purposes only. Presented by Sorelle Amore. Written by Leon Hill. #Superbubble #stockmarket #financialcollapse
GMO co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist Jeremy Grantham says there's a huge commercial imperative for big firms to play right up to the end of this market 'superbubble.' #FOXBusiness Subscribe to Fox Business! 🤍 Watch more Fox Business Video: 🤍 Watch Fox Business Network Live: 🤍 FOX Business Network (FBN) is a financial news channel delivering real-time information across all platforms that impact both Main Street and Wall Street. Headquartered in New York — the business capital of the world — FBN launched in October 2007 and is one of the leading business networks on television, having topped CNBC in Business Day viewers for the second consecutive year in 2018. The network is available in nearly 80 million homes in all markets across the United States. Owned by FOX Corporation, FBN is a unit of FOX News Media and has bureaus in Chicago, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C. Follow Fox Business on Facebook: 🤍 Follow Fox Business on Twitter: 🤍 Follow Fox Business on Instagram: 🤍
Investor Jeremy Grantham recently shared his thoughts on the stock market and the SUPER BUBBLE which he believes is now entering the final stage and collapse. = ★STOCK ANALYSIS SPREADSHEET (It's FREE)★ ▶︎ 🤍 - SHARESIGHT - Track Your Portfolio (Get 4 Months Access FREE) ▶︎🤍 - YOUNG INVESTORS PODCAST ▶︎ iTunes 🤍 ▶︎ Spotify 🤍 ▶︎ YouTube 🤍 - ★PRIVATE INVESTOR COMMUNITY★ ▶︎ 🤍 - MY YOUTUBE GEAR ▶︎🤍 - FOLLOW ME ON INSTAGRAM ▶︎ 🤍 LIKE ME ON FACEBOOK ▶︎ 🤍 EMAIL ME ▶︎ hamish🤍hamishhodder.com - Disclaimer: The information in this video is general information only and should not be taken as constituting professional advice from Hamish Hodder. Hamish Hodder is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Hamish Hodder is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by use of this video.
Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham warns a "super bubble" in stocks has yet to burst but will send stocks back to their March 2020 lows before it is all over. Jeremy says that high inflation and high interest rates will lead to more pain as the Bear market rally is almost over. Jeff, Tracy, & Steve's Research Reports 🤍 Portfolio Shield™ 🤍 Website 🤍 Social Media 🤍 🤍 🤍 Portfolio Shield™, Momentum Timer Pro™, and Markets Insider Pro™ are unregistered trademarks of Steven Van Metre Financial. Watermark Artwork by Jasmine Miller Twitter: 🤍jazcreative Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA) is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by (AFA) on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of YouTube. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
#Ad #NordVPN 🌏 Get our Exclusive NordVPN deal here ➼ 🤍 It's risk-free with Nord's 30-day money-back guarantee! Jeremy Grantham is a well-respected investor who has long predicted the selloff in markets in 2022. He believes that we are now entering the final stages of a super bubble that spans at least three different asset classes: the housing market, stocks and bonds, and that prices have much further to fall. In this video, I examine his arguments and also look at what this could mean for investors. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 00:30 Superbubble 05:07 The Four Stages 09:07 Rapid Bear Market Rally 11:33 The Last Act 13:41 Near-Term Problems 16:14 Permabear? 17:14 Conclusion What Else PensionCraft Offers: 💡 Become pensioncraft.com member and learn how to be a better investor. To find what we offer and how you can join our friendly community click here 🤍 ❓ Book a coaching session with Ramin so he can answer your questions in a one-to-one video call via Zoom: 🤍 📰 Sign up to our free weekly market roundup to get news and views about what's going on in the stock market and wider economy 🤍 📖 Understand investment in more depth with my online courses 🤍 Where Else You Can Find Me 🎧You can check out my weekly podcast all about investing here 🤍 🌐 Website - 🤍 📱 Twitter - 🤍 👨 Facebook - 🤍 🔗 Linkedin - 🤍 Tools I Use To Create My Videos ✔️ My primary data source is SharePad and an affiliate link for this is here 🤍 (This link provides new users with a special offer and gives me a small commission) The rest of the tools I use are free open source software: ✔️ ggplot2 package in R for my plots ✔️ RStudio to edit and run R code ✔️ OBS to record my videos and live streams ✔️ Kdenlive to edit my videos Take A Look At Some Of My Other Videos & Playlists 📹 Investment Strategies playlist 🤍 📹 Economy & Investing playlist 🤍 📹 Behavioural Investing playlist 🤍 📹 Investing Strategies From Beginners To Advanced video 🤍 DISCLAIMER All information is given for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Ramin does not provide recommendations and is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Figures that are quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. #SuperBubble #Investing #PensionCraft
Follow Me On Twitter 🤍 DoomBerg Article 🤍 June 2008. In the middle of a looming economic recession, historic events were transpiring in what is arguably the single most important market on earth. Crude Oil. That month the price of a barrel reached an inflation-adjusted $157. A price that many argue broke the camels back sending the world into what would later be known as the great recession. From there oil collapsed, and slowly the commodity retreated into irrelevance. Oil stocks became boomer plays and the once-dominant sector fell to all-time lows. In April of 2020 we witnessed oil get so beat down, the WTI May contract went negative. An absurd event that showcased just how far the commodity had fallen. Oil was declared dead but outside of the media echo chamber, the reality was much different. Oil was poised for the comeback of the century, and we are now entering its most critical phase before the superbubble erupts. In today's video, we break down the single most important story in finance, the scary future of oil, and its implications on the economy. Something shocking to think about. The world's largest oil producer isn't Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, or Kuwait. It's actually the United States of America. And while many fail to accept it, oil is arguably the single most important commodity in the world. Sure there has been an increase in alternative sources but we are not even close to replacing the black gold that is crude. Energy is life and the lack of energy is death. Apply this philosophy to world geopolitics and you see a clear pattern emerge. A pattern that explains most of the wars, conflicts, and movements we have seen in the past 40 years. The fight for oil is the fight for life on the world stage. And if you think foreign powers are not attempting to influence US energy production you, are absolutely wrong.
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The founders of Bridgewater and GMO discuss the big risks they’re watching, including inflationary pressures, political conflict, asset bubbles, and climate change — and what investors can do to protect themselves. The conversation is moderated by Jim Haskel, editor of the Daily Observations, and Alex Shahidi, co-CIO of Evoke Advisors, and is separated into two broad sections. In Part 1, Ray and Jeremy cover the major risks they are tracking — including strong inflationary pressures, rising political conflict, and asset bubbles. In Part 2, they talk through how investors can adjust their portfolios to prepare for these risks. Jeremy concludes the discussion by describing the threat that climate change and the overuse of natural resources poses to humanity, and the most promising solutions he sees to these problems. Recorded: May 9, 2022
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#Masterworks - The only investment platform dedicated to art investing 🤍 Invest in blue-chip art for the very first time. Purchase shares in great masterpieces from artists like Picasso, Warhol, and more! The US Housing Market. A massive super-bubble ready to pop at any moment. With interest rates approaching 6% and sky-high prices that seem to go up every single day, everyone on YouTube is eager to make the next great crash prediction. Young first-time homebuyers are finding it increasingly difficult to afford a home. The average mortgage payment has climbed to well over $2200, an increase of almost 100% since 2019. Everyone eager to buy is baffled and frustrated. How is it possible this market just keeps going up and up? In today's video, we cut through the BS and look at the most underrated leading indicator for housing prices. One that was used by infamous hedge fund manager Michael Burry to predict the last big crash. An infamous trade that made his firm billions and was dramatized into one of the most-watched finance movies of all time, the big short. 0:00 - 0:49 Intro - Housing Market Bubble? 0:50 - 2:28 Comparing 06' 2:29 - 4:10 #Masterworks.io 4:11 - 4:53 Way to Expensive? 4:54 - 5:54 The Most Important Variable 5:55 - 7:50 The Liar Loan of the early 2000's 7:51 - 10:04 Tim Dillion Clip 10:05 - 11:16 Outro
The used car bubble. Following the improbable events that occurred in March 2020, the used car market took a wild turn. Everyone's favorite depreciation asset had suddenly become the opposite. Used car prices soared and just as everyone assumed it was going to be a quick blimp, car prices just kept rising making used automobiles almost as expensive as new ones. On Feb 1st, 2020, the average used Ford cost Americans around $22,000. Today the average ford will cost you $30,000. That's about a 40% increase in less than three years. A new reality has taken over the market. My Twitter 🤍 University of Michigan Graph 🤍 St. Louis Fed Paper 🤍
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00:00 Intro and featured upcoming music artist 01:20 Nvidia: U.S. restricts sales to China 03:10 Jeremy Grantham Warns of Super Bubble 04:35 Fed's Mester Says no cuts through 2023 07:01 Disney PRIME coming? This is the song in the intro: 🤍 To join my discord community, weekly zoom calls and weekly hangouts for $5 per month, sign up here: 🤍 *Disclosure: I only recommend products I would use myself and all opinions expressed here are our own. This post may contain affiliate links that at no additional cost to you, I may earn a small commission. Improve your investment strategy by getting access to institutional-grade research tools and data from TipRanks. Get a 10% discount for TipRanks by using this link below: 🤍 If you are a creator on YouTube like me, get access to TubeBuddy, the best research and channel management tool around. I use it everyday for my own channel. Here is a 20% coupon code for the platform: "TOMSBUDDY" - use this link to sign up: 🤍 Sign up for Morning Brew, the best quick news source for your morning routine: 🤍 DISCLAIMER: All of Tom's strategies, and news coverage are based on his own opinions alone and are only done for entertainment purposes. If you are watching Tom's videos, please don't take any of this content as guidance for buying or selling any type of investment or security. Tom Nash is not a financial advisor and anything said on this YouTube channel should not be seen as financial advice. Tom is merely sharing his own personal opinion. Your own results in the stock market or with any type of investment may not be typical and may vary from person to person. Please keep in mind that there are a lot of risks associated with investing in the stock market so do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss historical bubbles and how he sees today in comparison to 2000. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: 🤍 » Subscribe to CNBC TV: 🤍 » Subscribe to CNBC: 🤍 Turn to CNBC TV for the latest stock market news and analysis. From market futures to live price updates CNBC is the leader in business news worldwide. The News with Shepard Smith is CNBC’s daily news podcast providing deep, non-partisan coverage and perspective on the day’s most important stories. Available to listen by 8:30pm ET / 5:30pm PT daily beginning September 30: 🤍 Connect with CNBC News Online Get the latest news: 🤍 Follow CNBC on LinkedIn: 🤍 Follow CNBC News on Facebook: 🤍 Follow CNBC News on Twitter: 🤍 Follow CNBC News on Instagram: 🤍 🤍 #CNBC #CNBCTV
Experian Report 🤍 With the Experian Q2 Automotive report and the Manahiem report fresh off the press, I wanted to take a moment and examine the used car bubble once again. New data from two of the world's largest reporting companies is suggesting the impossible is set to happen in the auto markets, and over the next few months, we will see developments that have never happened before in car market history.
Jan.22 Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist of Boston’s GMO, believes U.S. stocks have become an epic bubble and will burst in a collapse rivaling the crashes of 1929 and 2000. In this interview, he explains why, discusses the futility of Federal Reserve policy, criticizes the state of American capitalism, and shares his thoughts on gold, Bitcoin, emerging markets and climate change. He spoke exclusively to Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg’s “Front Row.”
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► Link to MARKET INSIDERS PRIVATE GROUP 🤍 Link to the article referenced in the video: 🤍 ►Tesla Bull T-shirts, Hoodies and other Stealth Wealth Goodies 🤍 ► Follow me here is what I am supposed to put here I think! 🤍 🤍 twitter: 🤍stealthwealth77 Remember, this is for entertainment purposes only, I’m an idiot don’t listen to me. Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Legal Disclosure: I’m not a financial advisor. The information contained in this video is for entertainment purposes only. Before investing, please consult a licensed professional. Any stock purchases I show on video should not be considered “investment recommendations”. I shall not be held liable for any losses you may incur for investing and trading in the stock market in attempt to mirror what I do. Unless investments are FDIC insured, they may decline in value and/or disappear entirely. Please be careful! DISCLAIMER: Links included in this description might be affiliate links. If you purchase a product or service with the links that I provide I may receive a small commission. There is no additional charge to you! ags can be useful if content in your video is commonly misspelled. Otherwise, tags play a minimal role in helping viewers find your video. Learn more stealth wealth Great Recession recession stealth wealth investing Stock Tesla Tesla stock Tesla stock news Tesla stock price prediction pltr PLTR stock palantir Palantir stock Palantir news Recession investing TSLA Tesla Tesla stock Tesla stock news Tesla stock price prediction pltr PLTR stock palantir Palantir stock Palantir news stock crash stock market crash Tesla crash Palantir Stock crash
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Get the Super Simple App for iOS now 😍 ► 🤍 Pop The Bubbles is a wonderful song for practicing counting to 10 with young kids. If you are using this song at home or in the classroom with young children, blow some imaginary bubbles and “pop” them as you sing along. Afterwards, blow some real bubbles and have fun popping and counting! 🎶 Are you ready to pop some bubbles? First we have to make them. Ready? One, two, three, blow! 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 Stop! No more bubbles!🎶 Listen to Super Simple Songs on Spotify: 🤍 Listen to Super Simple Songs on Apple Music: 🤍 Or, just ask your smart speaker to play Super Simple Songs! PARENTS AND TEACHERS: Thank you so much for watching Super Simple Songs with your families and/or students. If your young ones are watching without supervision, we recommend some of the following viewing options: ► SUPER SIMPLE APP 🤍 Be the first to watch new Super Simple videos in the Super Simple App! Ad-free and designed for young learners. ► DOWNLOAD 🤍 Videos from all Super Simple channels are available for purchase at the Super Simple online shop. You can also find some DVDs there. ► YOUTUBE KIDS 🤍 Designed to make it safer and simpler for young ones to watch online video, YouTube Kids includes a suite of parental controls so you can tailor the experience to suit your family’s needs. ► AMAZON VIDEO Are you an Amazon Prime member? Watch Super Simple videos ad-free on Amazon Prime Video. Just search for “Super Simple.” ► KHAN ACADEMY KIDS 🤍 Super Simple has partnered with Khan Academy on their latest app designed for preschoolers. You’ll find Super Simple Songs worked into the curriculum throughout the app. ► PLAYKIDS 🤍 Do you have the PlayKids app? You can find many of our Super Simple Songs and programs in the app! FREE SUPER SIMPLE TEACHING RESOURCES: 🤍 SOCIAL MEDIA: Super Simple Newsletter Sign Up: 🤍 Facebook: 🤍 Instagram: 🤍 Twitter: 🤍 Pinterest: 🤍 LYRICS: Are you ready to pop some bubbles? First we have to make them. Ready? One, two, three, blow! 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 Stop! No more bubbles! Let’s make some more! Ready? One, two, three, blow! 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 Stop! No more bubbles! Let’s make some more! Ready? One, two, three, blow! 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 Stop! No more bubbles! Let’s make some more! Ready? One, two, three, blow! 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 Stop! No more bubbles! Let’s blow one more GIANT bubble! Ready? One, two, three, blow! * Super Simple Songs® and Super Simple Learning® are registered trademarks of Skyship Entertainment Company. #nurseryrhymes #kidssongs #childrensmusic #supersimplesongs
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A very well know and well-respected investor Jeremy Grantham has said that there is not just a bubble in the US at the moment but there is actually a superbubble and it’s going to burst. Grantham has previously called two other massive bubbles, The Internet Bubble in 2000/2001 and the US Housing Bubble in 2006/20007, so when Grantham says we’re in a superbubble people tend to sit up and listen. In this video, I look at what he means by a superbubble and discuss the evidence that supports this. I also go on to discuss what this could mean for your portfolio and what types of investments Grantham suggests. If you're interested in learning more about investing then why not become a PensionCraft member? Pensioncraft.com members can enjoy lots of benefits, so to find out more about these and how to join our friendly community please click here 🤍 This Is What Else PensionCraft Offers: 📰 Sign up to our free weekly market roundup to get news and views about what's going on in the stock market and wider economy 🤍 💡 Book a Power Hour with Ramin so he can answer your questions in a one-to-one coaching session via a video call: 🤍 📖 Understand investment in more depth with my online courses 🤍 🎧You can check out my weekly podcast all about investing here 🤍 ❓ If you join PensionCraft on YouTube you’ll be supporting me to make more content and I will answer your questions and respond to your comments as a priority 🤍 Tools I Use To Create My Videos ✔️ My primary data source is SharePad and an affiliate link for this is here 🤍 (This link provides new users with a special offer and gives me a small commission) The rest of the tools I use are free opensource software: ✔️ ggplot2 package in R for my plots ✔️ RStudio to edit and run R code ✔️ OBS to record my videos and live streams ✔️ Kdenlive to edit my videos Take A Look At Some Of My Other Videos & Playlists 📹 Investment Strategies playlist 🤍 📹 Economy & Investing playlist 🤍 📹 Behavioural Investing playlist 🤍 📹 Investing Strategies From Beginners To Advanced video 🤍 Where Else You Can Find Me 🌐 Website - 🤍 📱 Twitter - 🤍 👨 Facebook - 🤍 🔗 Linkedin - 🤍 Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 00:22 Who is Jeremy Grantham? 01:13 Superbubble & Valuation 05:48 Craziness 07:04 House Prices 10:22 Bonds 11:00 Commodities 12:32 Portfolio Impact DISCLAIMER All information is given for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Ramin does not provide recommendations and is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Figures that are quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. #Superbubble #Investing #PensinCraft
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What happens next for the markets and why it's crashing. ►🤍 ► $10 of Bitcoin from Coinbase: 🤍 ► My Stock Portfolio + Stock Tracker: 🤍 ► Open A Roth IRA: 🤍 ► Follow Me On Instagram: 🤍 ► How I Protect My Bitcoin: 🤍 WHY IS THE MARKET CRASHING? The market is finally realizing that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is going to increase the rates and the market is not liking it. WHAT? DIDN'T WE ALREADY KNOW THIS? YES! We did. Fundamentally there's nothing new that has changed other than "market sentiment" (fancy for the market is getting emotional). First, let's talk about how we got here. HOW WE GOT HERE Federal fund interest rates drop to 0, 14 trillion dollars injected into the economy - companies became super profitable, stock market went to an all time high, demand went through the roof - employment and compensation went to an all time high - but we forgot that things keep going up forever. WHERE'S THE DATA? Looking back as far as the 1960s, you can see capital velocity was 1.7 - it stays there for a few decades before reaching the peak of 2.1 in 1997, we get the Dotcom bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and then we get the rony rona. Here’s where we are now - 1.1: 🤍 This means people are starting to get worried - they don’t know how this movie is going to play out. And we can see this on google trends too. Mortgage loan searches are at a 5 year low, car and auto loan searches are at a 5 year low. My ad revenue here on YouTube - is down 28% from where it was. This means companies are spending less money on advertising. This tells us at best - companies are saving money for a potentially hard year, or at the worst - they’re preparing for something bad. WHAT ABOUT INFLATION? Think about this: if the Fed really wanted to stop inflation, wouldn’t they have to increase the rates in equal proportion to inflation? In the 1970s, when inflation hit 11%, the Federal Reserve chairman at the time - Paul Volker had to increase rates to 20% to fight inflation. We don’t have 11% inflation, we have 7% - so we’d have to raise rates way more. Why then - would the Fed only want to raise rates by 1 or 2%? That won’t do anything to stop inflation. The reason is, because Jerome Powell believes that we’re in demand-pull inflation thanks to supply chain problems and that they will work themselves out through normal supply and demand. WHAT'S ALL THIS TALK ABOUT NETFLIX? Because it was this past week that was a wake up call when Netflix fell 23%. From January to March - they forecast 2.5 million new subscribers to be added instead of the 5.9 million that analysts predicted they would add. The reason that’s a big deal is because analysts use projections of big companies - especially tech companies - to foreshadow what could happen to growth in the future. Their assumption is if Netflix is predicting such slow growth, well that’s not looking good for everyone else. SO WHY IS THE STOCK & CRYPTO MARKET CRASHING? This week we’re getting company earnings, big company earnings. The reason why earnings are scary is because if earnings are good then it signals to Jerome Powell we’re doing great, employment is back to pre pandemic, it’s a strong economy, people are making money and that the Fed more reason to raise the rates confidently and maybe even earlier than expected. The market doesn’t like that (remember rates going up is bad for investor mentality). But if the earnings come out and we see they are below expectation then that can reinforce the idea that “we're about to be in a recession". HAVE WE BEEN HERE BEFORE? Between 1989 and 2022, there were 6 rate cut cycles (when interest rates fell) and the average return for the S&P500 was 21.2% - not bad. Let’s compare that to where we are now. Let’s look at rate hike cycles which is what’s about to happen (interest rate increases). Between 1994 and 2019 there were 5 rate hike cycles - the average return for the S&P500 was 62.9%. Almost 3x as good which means - while everyone is expecting the price of the stock market to fall this year - it might go in the exact opposite direction in the long term: 🤍 *None of this is meant to be construed as investment advice, it's for entertainment purposes only. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
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